时变效应模型及在密集追踪数据分析中的应用

密集追踪数据通常蕴含了心理过程的详细变化信息,反映了某些心理的复杂变化过程。时变效应模型用函数替代恒定的系数,可描述密集追踪数据中随时间推移心理的动态变化过程和时变效应,是分析复杂心理过程的有效方法。在介绍时变效应模型的原理后,通过模拟研究考察模型的表现,结果显示:(1)样本量增加可降低函数估计的误差;(2)惩罚样条法的节点数选择与函数的复杂度有关,函数越复杂,所需节点越多;(3)样本量与节点数对函数估计误差的交互效应不显著。进一步应探讨测量次数、数据分布形态、数据缺失等如何影响模型的表现。     

中国人社会善念的心理结构

为探究中国人社会善念的心理结构, 研究采用人格词汇法, 在开放调查收集的词汇中选取代表社会善念的心理词语, 确立了社会善念词库。通过两次探索性因素分析和验证性因素分析, 得到包含18个人格特质词的社会善念词汇评定量表和包含17项描述的社会善念自陈量表。研究表明, 中国人的社会善念是一种具有二阶四因素结构的人际特质, 二阶是指宜人特质和外倾特质, 四因素分别是善良尊重、谦和恭逊、包容理解和积极开放。     

The role of drivers’ social interactions in their driving behavior: Empirical evidence and implications for car-following and traffic flow

Models for describing the microscopic driving behavior rarely consider the “social effects” on drivers’ driving decisions. However, social effect can be generated due to interactions with surrounding vehicles and affect drivers’ driving behavior, e.g., the interactions result in imitating the behavior of peer drivers. Therefore, social environment and peer influence can impact the drivers’ instantaneous behavior and shift the individuals’ driving state. This study aims to explore empirical evidence for existence of a social effect, i.e., when a fast-moving vehicle passes a subject vehicle, does the driver mimic the behavior of passing vehicle? High-resolution Basic Safety Message data set (N = 151,380,578) from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment program in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is used to explore the issue. The data relates to positions, speeds, and accelerations of 63 host vehicles traveling in connected vehicles with detailed information on surrounding environment at a frequency of 10 Hz. Rigorous random parameter logit models are estimated to capture the heterogeneity among the observations and to explore if the correlates of social effect can vary both positively and negatively. Results show that subject drivers do mimic the behavior of passing vehicles –in 16 percent of passing events (N = 18,099 total passings occurred in freeways), subject vehicle drivers are observed to follow the passing vehicles accelerating. We found that only 1.2 percent of drivers normally sped up (10 km/hr in 10 s) during their trips, when they were not passed by other vehicles. However, if passed by a high speed vehicle the percentage of drivers who sped up is 16.0 percent. The speed change of at least 10 km/hr within 10 s duration is considered as accelerating threshold. Furthermore, the acceleration of subject vehicle is more likely if the speed of subject driver is higher and more surrounding vehicles are present. Interestingly, if the difference with passing vehicle speed is high, the likelihood of subject driver’s acceleration is lower, consistent with expectation that if such differences are too high, the subject driver may be minimally affected. The study provides new evidence that drivers’ social interactions can change traffic flow and implications of the study results are discussed.     

Atmospheres of street performance in Taipei: Affect and emotion as dynamic,simultaneous, more-than-representational experiences

Studies of street performance have highlighted its potential for creating vibrant and inclusive urban places, yet have largely neglected its atmospheric, affectual and emotional dimensions. Building on a growing body of work on atmospheres and dynamics of affect and emotion, I examine the formation of atmospheres by street performances in Taipei and its affectual and emotional resonance on space and people. I used an experimental more-than-representational methodology, including implementing a live survey questionnaire through the audience's smartphones during a performance. An atmosphere of street performance is generated through the lively interactions between the street performer, members of the audience, performance objects and the wider urban environment. Performance objects and the urban streetscape are vitalised as part of street performance, and have excessive potential in producing atmospheres. The spatio-temporal dimension of performance atmosphere is significant in generating memories and creating a therapeutic atmospheric space, experienced affectually and emotionally. I suggest that it would be helpful to see atmosphere and its affectual and emotional impact as dynamic, simultaneous experiences that people encounter as they are enmeshed within an atmosphere, such as in more-than-individual experiences or unexpected events. Within a changing atmosphere, there are multiple layers of affective and emotional outcomes, whether felt and emerging individually, and/or felt and emerging collectively.     

The everyday dynamics of rumination and worry: precipitant events and affective consequences

ABSTRACT

Rumination and worry are two perseverative, negatively valenced thought processes that characterise depressive and anxiety disorders. Despite significant research interest, little is known about the everyday precipitants and consequences of rumination and worry. Using an experience sampling methodology, we examined and compared rumination and worry with respect to their relations to daily events and affective experience. Participants diagnosed with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD), co-occurring MDD–GAD, or no diagnosis carried an electronic device for one week and reported on rumination, worry, significant events, positive affect (PA), and negative affect (NA). Across the clinical groups, occurrences of everyday events predicted subsequent increases in rumination, but not worry. Further, higher momentary levels of rumination, but not worry, predicted subsequent decreases in PA and increases in NA. Thus, in these clinical groups, rumination was more susceptible to daily events and produced stronger affective changes over time. We discuss implications for theory and clinical intervention.     

Testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation: Asymptotic methods versus resampling techniques

Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, which provide a mathematical tool to understand repeating patterns in time series data, are often used to facilitate the identification of model orders of time series models (e.g., moving average and autoregressive models). Asymptotic methods for testing autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation such as the 1/T approximation method and the Bartlett's formula method may fail in finite samples and are vulnerable to non-normality. Resampling techniques such as the moving block bootstrap and the surrogate data method are competitive alternatives. In this study, we use a Monte Carlo simulation study and a real data example to compare asymptotic methods with the aforementioned resampling techniques. For each resampling technique, we consider both the percentile method and the bias-corrected and accelerated method for interval construction. Simulation results show that the surrogate data method with percentile intervals yields better performance than the other methods. An R package pautocorr is used to carry out tests evaluated in this study.     

Who’s afraid of the big bad wolf? The interweaving of values and science

The role of values in the scientific process is widely debated. But evidence and values cannot be neatly separated. Instead, values infuse the entire scientific process, starting with the choice of research questions. Research avenues are selected based on prior beliefs about the workings of the world. In fact, informally assigned prior probabilities and normalizing constants play an essential role in distinguishing causes from correlations and ignoring irrelevant associations that would otherwise be suggested by raw data. But since these initial probabilities often have a heterogeneous pedigree – often not all that went into their formation is known or knowable – it becomes difficult to cleanly separate evidence from values. At the same time, this reality does not undermine science’s unique status in generating knowledge. This is because it is not the evidence per se generated by science, but rather the method by which science generates it, that justifies science’s privileged role.     

抽象颜色偏好实验研究

本实验采用对偶比较法对4～21岁人群779名被试进行抽象颜色偏好调查研究,得出以下结果：（1）4～21岁人群抽象颜色偏好顺序依次是蓝、橙、红、黄、紫、绿;（2）男生和女生对抽象颜色的偏好具有明最差异;（3）不同年龄段的人群时抽象颜色偏好具有明显差异;（4）抽象颜色偏好虽然随着时代的变迁发生变化,但是仍有一定的规律性。     

反应风格的测量与统计控制

反应风格是共同方法偏差的主要来源之一。本文首先讨论反应风格的定义和类型,梳理其危害,认为反应风格能使测验分数出现偏差,影响测验信效度分析和变量关系分析,有必要控制其危害。然后介绍了常用的反应风格测量方法,包括计数法和模型法两大类,对测量方法的选择给出了建议,在此基础上,就如何结合反应风格的测量方法与残差回归法、偏相关法来控制反应风格危害给出建议。     

骨折治疗方法与原则的最优化历程

多年来骨折治疗,新旧技术、新旧理论相互融合,相互碰撞,产生了新的理论和方法,使得临床疗效显著提高,现阶段理智的临床医生应该融汇各家之长,多方互补,对每一位骨折患者的治疗都应该按照最优化的原则进行.但是在医疗过程中总存在着如方法选择不当或者错误,过度治疗,医患信任危机,医疗伦理道德的丧失等情况,我们应该用矛盾分析的方法来思考这些问题.